Spain’s opposition leader Mariano Rajoy is poised to gain an absolute majority in parliament as he plans to cut taxes and revamp the banking industry to shield the euro area’s fourth-biggest economy from Europe’s debt crisis.

The People’s Party has a 17 percentage-point lead and would win 46.6 percent support if the Nov. 20 vote were held now, according to the survey conducted by state polling unit CIS from Oct. 6 to Oct. 23. That compared with 29.9 percent for the ruling Socialists led by Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba, Madrid-based CIS said in an e-mailed statement today.

Such an outcome would give the PP, which already controls 11 of the 17 semi-autonomous regions, the largest majority of any Spanish government since 1982 in the election. The vote would translate into 190 to 195 seats for the PP, versus 116 to 121 for the Socialists, the CIS said. The Socialists are struggling to retain voters after imposing the deepest austerity measures in at least three decades as a three-year slump has pushed unemployment over 21 percent to a 15-year high.

The poll, which involved 17,236 interviews and had a margin of error of 0.76 percentage point, is in line with other surveys indicating the PP will return to government after eight years in opposition. The party is seen winning in 11 surveys conducted since Sept. 5 with an average 46.2 percent score, versus 31.5 percent for the Socialists.

Better Managers

Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero isn’t seeking re-election and his party chose Rubalcaba, the former deputy prime minister and interior minister, as its candidate. Close to 90 percent of the people surveyed by the CIS said the economic situation in Spain is bad or very bad and 62 percent condemned the Socialist government’s policies in the last four years.